We think debates over raw material supplies and supply lines are valid
In the U.S., concerns over EVs placing stress on the electric grid appear misplaced
Wind & Solar generation additions will material exceed incremental EV demand for years to come
Any incremental EV demand can theoretically be met with green supply
How Much Power Demand Will U.S. EV Build-Out Create Through 2031?
In short, not much. Let's run through our model.
EV registrations grow from just over 3 million in 2022 to 18 million in 2031.
Assuming 65% of PHEV miles are electrified and utilizing average miles per driver, we can estimate electric miles driven.
U.S. fleet efficiency of 0.31 kWh/mile, results in 60 TWhrs of EV demand in 2031.
A big number, right?
60 TWhrs is barely a blip on a 4,000 TWhr market.
Wind & Solar generation increases will often be many multiples of incremental EV demand.
It will take years to reach significant EV penetration in the U.S. This same math from above suggests swapping the entire U.S. vehicle fleet would add 25-30% to U.S. electricity demand. A significant number for sure, but one that will be spread out over many decades.
Renewable power will likely continue to chip away at fossil fuel share even while meeting incremental electric vehicle demand.