The U.S. shale boondoggle of capital infused growth is over for good
U.S. oil growth going forward will be more modest than the recent past with a smaller impact on global supply/demand balances
The world is facing the enormous challenge of threading an energy needle - moving to cleaner energy sources while limiting fossil fuel capital and growth prospects
Buckle up - the energy transition, or world attempt at one, is going to be bumpy
We take a look at U.S. oil & product inventories heading into 2023
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Diesel stocks have improved in recent weeks relative to the five-year average, but diesel and Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) storage levels stand out at outliers.
Commercial oil stocks are relatively high historically and are only 7% below the five-year average, but are showing weakness in recent weeks as SPR releases slow.
SPR versus the prior five-year range highlights the historic nature of the 2022 release.
Gasoline stocks are 5% below the five-year average.
Diesel stocks are far more problematic than gasoline at 13% below the five-year average, but that has improved from 25% below just a few months prior.
Propane stocks are healthy, at 14% above the five-year average.
Finally, jet fuel stocks are a reasonable 4% below historical averages.
The slope of aggregate oil & product draws is concerning. Much of the draw shown in the chart below can be explained by the 2022 emergency SPR release. Commercial oil stocks are likely to become the new focus on the oil side as diesel stocks remain the market focus on the product side of the equation.
Please note, our interactive oil & product weekly storage data visualization is always updated. Click the image below to visit.