Texas Two-Step

Everything is bigger in Texas

Texas Two-Step
Photo by Vivian Arcidiacono / Unsplash
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As we've highlighted previously, everything is bigger in Texas, including the power markets

Wind & solar are doing the 'Texas Two-Step' for electricity generation in the state

In recent months Texas wind & solar generation surpassed total generation in North Carolina, leaving only five states (FL, PA, CA, IL, AL) where total generation exceeds just wind & solar in Texas

Open lands, private ownership, deregulation and growing power markets have made Texas the biggest cog and largest driver of renewable energy growth in the U.S.

Lone Star Stats

Only Florida, Pennsylvania, California, Illinois and Alabama generate more total power than Texas generates only wind & solar power.  Texas wind & solar likely passes Alabama in 2023 or 2024, leaving just four states producing more total power.  

Despite the substantial growth in wind & solar power in Texas, natural gas generation has continued to grow.

That being said, due to relative growth rates, we expect wind & solar generation to approach natural gas generation in Texas over the next five years.

Looking at generation fuel types in Texas illustrates growth in the renewable power generation stack.

Wind generation has generally exceeded the prior five-year range, very much highlighting a capacity growth story.

Solar generation in Texas is running away from the prior five-year range through massive capacity growth.

Away from wind & solar, the pictures are vastly different.  Natural gas generation growth has been upward sloping but choppy.

Nuclear generation is visibly stable, as expected.

Coal share losses are substantial, but leveling off recently.

Solar capacity and generation is shining and will continue to shine in the Lone Star State due to substantial expected capacity additions.  Future share losses in a higher price natural gas world will be interesting to watch - coal may be stickier than expected for economic reasons.