ERCOT as a Petri Dish

10yrs of Daily Data

ERCOT as a Petri Dish
Photo by Sam LaRussa / Unsplash
As a follow up to previous work, we took ten years of ERCOT daily generation data and visualized nominal and relative changes, comparing wind and solar versus natural gas

- Wind generation growth is leveling off
- Solar generation growth is ramping
- Natural gas generation has had limited growth but the upper and lower bounds - the volatility - has expanded

Solar is just a capacity build out story today in ERCOT- there is little correlation to displacing natural gas

Wind capacity growth and wind volumes are driving increasingly negative correlation between wind and natural gas generation in ERCOT

Intermittency and the challenges it brings to an electrical grid will continue to drive the renewable energy debate

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Capacity factor correlations haven't changed much over time.  Note that wind generally has higher peak-end capacity factors days than natural gas.

Wind and natural gas correlation is increasingly negative.

Solar is a capacity story.

Wind generation is generally leveling off in ERCOT.

Solar power generation is increasing at a rapid rate.

The addition of volatile and intermittent power sources has added to natural gas generation volatility.