Dallas Fed Energy Survey Indices

We dig into the Dallas Fed Energy Survey

Dallas Fed Energy Survey Indices
Photo by Zbynek Burival / Unsplash
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Last out at the end of June, the Dallas Fed Energy Survey is a quarterly assessment of oil & gas company operations based on a sample of approximately 200 companies in the US oil patch.

Survey responses are utilized to calculate an index for each indicator by subtracting the percentage of respondents reporting a decrease from the percentage reporting an increase.

We visualize the quarterly index data. Results above zero suggest the indicator increases and results below zero are the result of a decrease.

Index results suggest relatively robust U.S. oil company activity currently despite the broad political rhetoric and commentary included with the Survey.

Perception Versus Reality?

Survey respondents provide quarterly commentary.  Recent comments are far from favorable towards DC.

The country’s energy policy is on the wrong path. Picking wind and solar and going faster in this direction is a mistake.
The [federal] government's anti-oil, anti-gas and anti-pipeline stance has caused us to not pursue expansive projects.
Politics are affecting our business, with both sides pushing ridiculous agendas with no management or understanding at all. Wall Street is suddenly on the new fad of the day, which is everything green and environmental, social and governance.

Clearly higher commodity prices are impacting industry sentiment positively, but the commentary is hard to reconcile with the survey results and calculated indices.

The level of business activity is the highest since the Survey began in 2016.

Capital expenditure expectations are the highest since the survey began

Employment in the industry remains tenuous, but still better than the prior five years

Despite the comments included in the Survey, U.S. energy company outlooks are as positive as they have been in years

We aren't completely sure what to make of the discrepancy between the Survey comments and data/indices but rhetoric and math appear to be at odds.  The indices are currently higher under an anti-oil and gas administration than anytime under the prior pro-oil and gas administration.

Data we'll continue to watch.