As discussed previously, we've modeled the impact of the Inflation Reduction Act on the U.S. power grid and we expect considerable competition for market share as wind and solar capacity and generation grow
Low natural gas prices in 2023 and potentially 2024 may throw a monkey wrench in near-term renewable growth, but also sway the pendulum toward additional coal retirements
EV penetration should grow materially, but off a very small base - we don't foresee a material impact on power demand nor fuel demand from the electrification of the U.S. passenger fleet
As part of some work done with Nick Van Osdol from the Keep Cool newsletter, we produced additional forecast - those charts are included
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A viewable version of the Enersection U.S. power model can be found here - please reach out with interest in accessing the data
The Future of the U.S. Power Grid
The 2020's are expected to be the decade of solar power.
Coal gets displaced by wind and solar - not much else changes between now and 2031.
There are no magic bullets to materially move the low-carbon sourcing higher.
The U.S. is 50 different power grids, with different current and future expected compositions dependent on a number of factor.
EV growth has minimal impact on power demand.
Like the power markets, U.S. fuel demand will vary greatly by state - with EV penetration only one variable.
We continue to believe the pace of the perception of the pace of global energy transition is set to meet reality soon. The world being awash in natural gas is an unexpected variable. Much uncertainty remains.